'Western Bengal has advanced under Mamata Banerjee. "Maa weaver Khomuta, Sange chahe Didi Mamta," is what the people of Bengal say. Only Bengal is isolated under the Modi administration. He has kept all of the money for MNREGA, the ration, and himself. Bengal received no money. Under such circumstances, how would the BJP fare in Bengal? We demand our rights first. As soon as Arifur Rahman mentions elections at a tea shop in Kolkata, his discontent becomes evident.
West Bengal will hold seven phases of elections for its forty-two Lok Sabha seats between April 19 and June 1. Here, the BJP and Mamata Banerjee's TMC are directly competing. In West Bengal, the TMC has ruled for 13 years. Though they are still in the race, Congress and CPI (M) have lost a significant portion of their voter base.
Recognize the West Bengal trend and equation in four points.
1. The Citizenship Amendment Act, or CAA, has an impact on West Bengal's elections. Less than 20 seats were visible at TMC prior to the adoption of CAA. It can now obtain 20–22 seats. TMC had secured 22 seats in 2019.
2. The BJP is bringing up problems like corruption and rape against women in Sandeshkhali during this election. Although the Sandeshkhali case appeared to be helping it, experts now think that CAA has hurt the BJP. 15 to 18 seats are anticipated to go to the party. The party had gained eighteen seats in 2019.
3. The coalition between the Congress and CPI (M) is claiming 6-7 seats. Experts predict that their chances of winning more than two seats are slim.
4. The BJP is bolstering its presence in West Bengal. For him, the Lok Sabha elections serve as a practice run for the 2026 assembly elections. The BJP prioritizes women, tribal, and Hindu voters. 'Bengal Campaign' and 'Outsider vs. Bengali' are TMC's concurrent focal points.
In addition to Kolkata, the Dainik Bhaskar crew also made their way to other West Bengal cities, where they were able to gauge the wind direction for the Lok Sabha elections.
rivalry between one alliance and two parties
1. The Trinamool Congress (TMC)
In West Bengal, the TMC is the biggest party. The party is running unopposed for each of the 42 Lok Sabha seats. TMC had originally planned to run in the elections alongside the INDIA block, but at the last minute, the party decided to break away from the alliance.
2. The BJP
The state's principal opposition party is the BJP. Every one of the 42 Lok Sabha seats will be up for grabs for the party alone. After gaining 18 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP rose to the position of second-largest party. Statewide, the party is led by Shubhendu Adhikari.
3. The Indian Secular Front (ISF), Congress, and CPI (M) are the Third Front Parties.
In state politics, Congress and CPI (M) are sidelined. Congress received 2. seats and 5.7% of the vote in 2019. CPI (M) has candidates running for 22 seats this time. Nine congressional seats have declared their candidates.
Indian Secular Front (ISF) candidate Naushad Siddiqui is running from Diamond Harbor against Abhishek Banerjee, general secretary of the TMC. Since Muslims make up the majority of ISF voters, TMC may lose numerous seats.
In West Bengal, which party is the strongest?
"If you had asked this question a few days ago, you would have said that the BJP seems to have an upper hand over the TMC in this election," responds political analyst Suman Bhattacharya. This election has suddenly turned into a two-sided contest following the arrest of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, the raid on the home of former TMC MP Mahua Moitra, and the arrival of CAA.
The BJP and TMC will now engage in a fierce battle for 40 seats. The TMC may win 22 seats, while the BJP may win 18 seats. or 20-20 seats for both.
Shaytan Ghosh, a political analyst, states that Muslim voters had previously been gravitating towards the BJP. Muslim voters' sentiments were altered by TMC's anti-CAA campaign following the publication of the CAA notification.
Muslims believe that Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is powerful and capable of rescuing them. They also believe that they have been longtime supporters of TMC. If we stop providing support now, Mamata will follow. Now that 30% of Muslims vote, they will band together and support Mamata.
Shaitan goes on, "The BJP attempted to polarize in 2021, but it backfired." The Bengali people's pulse has not yet been captured by the BJP. Maybe this explains why the CAA notification was sent out so close to the election. Currently, the BJP can only win 17–20 seats in this scenario. TMC's account will be charged for the remaining seats.
Bengal has very crucial panchayat elections, according to political analyst Deepak Goswami. In the state, the person with the most panchayats will be powerful. TMC is well aware of this. Mamata Banerjee's popularity has increased, but her MLAs and MPs have not. They believe that TMC officials are engaging in the same corruption in broad daylight that the Left did throughout the night.
To what extent does the TMC-BJP stand to gain or lose from Mamata's Bengal campaign?
Snigdhendu Bhattacharya, a senior journalist, responds, "The biggest issue facing the BJP in the elections is corruption." TMC is promoting the idea of good governance at the same time. The party is concentrating on the Bengal campaign this time. This time, Mamata Banerjee stays away from discussing overthrowing the BJP, or Modi, in her talks.
Mamata's campaign aims to educate the public on how her reign brought prosperity to Bengal. Furthermore, he shielded Bengal from the atrocities committed by the central BJP government. TMC is concentrating on gaining more seats in order to tighten its grip over Bengal.
According to Bhattacharya, "the TMC has been fighting elections on the basis of regional nationalist identity since 2018." Tamil Nadu, which has a history of Dravidian politics, is another place where this is evident.
Snigdhendu goes on: "BJP leaders from Hindi-speaking states were regularly featured in the media in West Bengal earlier." Every day, he held rallies. These leaders are currently invisible. Big rallies are no longer held by Amit Malviya, Asha Lakra, or Amit Shah.
"The BJP realized in 2021 that the TMC's 'outsider vs. Bengali' campaign was being bolstered by calling leaders from other states." BJP officials are no longer visible from the outside during their public gatherings. They hold meetings behind closed doors and then leave. By presenting its local leaders, the BJP is now attempting to alter the mindset of the people.
"Mamata is also following the path of Hindu appeasement but does not want to anger Muslims either," adds senior journalist Prabhakar Mani Tiwari.
Snigdhendu goes on: "BJP leaders from Hindi-speaking states were regularly featured in the media in West Bengal earlier." Every day, he held rallies. These leaders are currently invisible. Big rallies are no longer held by Amit Malviya, Asha Lakra, or Amit Shah.
"The BJP realized in 2021 that the TMC's 'outsider vs. Bengali' campaign was being bolstered by calling leaders from other states." BJP officials are no longer visible from the outside during their public gatherings. They hold meetings behind closed doors and then leave. By presenting its local leaders, the BJP is now attempting to alter the mindset of the people.
"Mamata is also following the path of Hindu appeasement but does not want to anger Muslims either," adds senior journalist Prabhakar Mani Tiwari.
According to senior journalist Snigdhendu Bhattacharya, "Political polarization is being done by both the TMC and the BJP." The BJP seeks to win over every Hindu vote. The votes of Muslims don't really matter to him. Her goal is to make the pro-Hindu campaign more aggressive.
On 13 seats, Muslim votes determine who wins and loses.
Baharampur, Jangipur, Murshidabad, Raiganj, Malda (South), Malda (North), Basirhat, Jadavpur, Birbhum, Krishnanagar, Diamond Harbour, Jaynagar, and Mathurapur are the thirteen Lok Sabha seats of West Bengal. Muslims who vote have sway in India.
At 64%, Baharampur has the greatest percentage of Muslim votes. Murshidabad has a majority of 66% Muslim votes, followed by Malda (51%), North Dinajpur (50%), and Birbhum (37.1%). North 24 Parganas (35%), Mathurapur (32%), and Howrah (26%).
To what extent did Bengal's BJP leanings shift between 2014 and 2024?
Snigdhendu Bhattacharya, a seasoned writer and journalist, responds, "The BJP formed the government at the Center after winning a significant majority in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections." His attention has since shifted to West Bengal. He ordered his central ministers to come to Bengal. Several influential personalities, including JP Nadda, Arvind Menon, and Kailash Vijayvargiya, arrived in West Bengal between 2014 and 2019.
Snigdhendu goes on, "It had only been four years since Bengal's Left government, or CPI (M), left." The people were against the return of the Left government. TMC attempted to totally annihilate the Left at the same time.
He tried to win over Left leaders at the MLA, municipal, and panchayat levels. Numerous supporters of the left were imprisoned. The Left's leaders began to believe that the BJP, with its central position, was the only thing standing between them and Mamata Banerjee.
Suman Bhattacharya, a political analyst, attributes the BJP's ascent in Bengal to the RSS. He states, "For the past few years, the RSS has been active in Bengal." This directly benefited the BJP in North Bengal. The RSS has contributed to the party's influence over the dynasties in North Bengal. In the Lok Sabha elections of 2019, it also paid off. The BJP had taken Bankura, Bishnupur, and Jhargram in West Bengal.
Political analyst Shaytan Ghosh states, "TMC was in opposition when there was a Left government in Bengal." Since taking office in 2011, it has emerged as the state's most powerful party. The opponent's bench was empty. Congress and CPI (M) were unable to take this position. West Bengal has been the focus of the BJP ever since it took center stage in 2014. He began his work on the ground upon spotting an opening for the enemy.
Bengal was placed under the leadership of prominent RSS leader Dilip Ghosh by the BJP in 2014. The party did well in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, but starting in 2021, Sukanta Majumdar and Subhendu Adhikari—who joined the BJP from the TMC—replaced Dilip Ghosh. Subhendu Adhikari has continued to be a prominent figure in Bengali BJP politics ever since.
Due to Subhendu Adhikari's influence, the BJP is dominant in Medinipur.
Subhendu Adhikari quit the TMC and joined the BJP in 2020. Along with him was Sunil Mandal, the prominent Bardhaman leader. The BJP is growing stronger in the Medinipur division as a result of Shubhendu. Here are the nine Lok Sabha seats:. Shumendu, Shubhendu's brother, is running from the Kanthi seat.
Why did Bengal experience the India block break?
The TMC was prepared to run for office alongside the India block, said national spokesman Muhammad Tausif Rehman. Even though Mamta Banerjee used to attend meetings, it is unacceptable for the Congress to disparage us now that they have visited West Bengal.
Adhir Ranjan Choudhary, the Congress leader, was not in our corner. The TMC wasn't notified or invited to take part in Rahul Gandhi's Nyaya Yatra when it traveled to West Bengal. The deadline for announcing seat sharing was December 31st. That was not disclosed to us either. The party acted as TMC ought to have in such a case.
Read what the major parties have to say now.
TMC predicts it will take 35–36 seats.
Tausif Rehman, national spokesperson for the TMC, states that numerous riots have occurred in the nation since the BJP government came to power. Politics was involved with beef. Since the beginning, we have run for office on the platform of development, and our concern hasn't changed.
2014 saw a significant win for the BJP. Following this, Bengal's populace continued to have faith in him in 2019, and he was elected to eighteen seats. The public's blessing was insulted by the BJP. The assembly elections of 2021 further demonstrated this.
The BJP claims it would gain 35 seats.
Sanku Dev Panda, the vice president of BJYM and a BJP spokesperson, claims that most crimes in Bengal are committed against women. Although there is just one Sandeshkhali in the state, there are numerous Sandeshkhalis born here.
"Youth unemployment is a major problem." The young people have been on strike for two to two and a half years at Dharna Pond, even now. For crores of rupees, their employment was sold to other individuals. The largest con in the state has been this one. Partha Chakraborty, the minister of education for Bengal, is incarcerated on this charge.
Congress says there is a bipolar election, but they will still gain four to five seats.
"The politics based on religion that are taking place in West Bengal are a gift from Mamata Banerjee," remarks State Congress General Secretary Kamru Chaudhary. In the elections held in Bengal in 2016, we secured 44 seats. Mamata was the target of anti-incumbency sentiment in 2021. Mamata began the politics of divisiveness after that.
"Congress is putting up a very good fight in Baharampur, South Malda, North Malda, and Raiganj," he continues. Numerous candidates in Congress and the Left Alliance have impeccable reputations. Those with education and work ethic, such as Dipshita Dhar, Sara Shah Aalim, and Srijan, are entering politics. He is aware of what is best for the nation.
"The election is bipolar this time around." This level of divisiveness is being witnessed in Bengal elections for the first time. The majority of voters are split between the BJP and the TMC. It is our expectation that Congress will secure four or five seats.
CPI (M) asserts: Concentrate on 10–12 seats
Bikash Ranjan Bhattacharya, leader of the CPI (M) and MP for the Rajya Sabha, states, "We are contesting the elections in alliance with Congress." Together, we will run for 40% of the state's seats in elections. We are currently in the process of deciding whether or not to incorporate certain more secular parties, such as ISF.
Bhattacharya goes on, "We want to bring up corruption as a focal point for this election." The state has seen a number of frauds, including those involving teacher recruitment, paper leaks, and rationing. Bengal's unemployment rate has gone up as a result. Both the TMC and the BJP share the same philosophy, and they both exploit it to the same extent.
