The RBI's action against Paytm Payments Bank was about a month ago. The company's issues are becoming worse every day rather than getting better. RBI has extended the deadline to March 15 in order to provide relief to the firm. However, foreign businesses may have different perspectives on Paytm, which could cause more issues for the platform. According to a recent analysis from UBS, a financial services and investment firm based in Switzerland, Paytm will be able to save the majority of its user base with the assistance of the RBI and the National Payments Corporation of India. However, Paytm's merchant and user base might drop by roughly 20%.
Because of this, the business might face difficulties in the 2025 fiscal year. According to UBS, the company's revenue would suffer as a result of the wallet business's demise, and it will need to focus entirely on sustaining the loan and payment businesses. The UBS analysis states that gaining users' confidence will be Paytm's largest challenge. He will need to spend more money on marketing in order to achieve this. As a result, the company's EBITDA loss will rise. It is anticipated that the company's shares will continue to trade between Rs 510 to Rs 650. The company's performance will not improve for a very long time. The business might also need to put in a lot of effort to gain investors' faith.
In addition, RBI has allayed concerns over the @paytm UPI handle. Merchants using Paytm will be moved to different banks. Furthermore, Paytm will have the ability to function as a third-party app provider following approval from the NPCI. Like TPAP, PhonePe and Google Pay function as well. According to the UBS study, there is concern that the decision made by the RBI could have a noticeable impact on the fourth quarter results of the current fiscal year. Additionally, the corporation can sustain some long-term losses. In addition, there is a chance that Paytm's market share would drop by 25%. This covers any losses suffered by the merchant and customers in addition to the wallet. The company's loan business might also decline by roughly 14%. Cloud and e-commerce businesses, however, won't be too negatively impacted.
