Although I like Modi, Kerala does not agree with what the BJP is doing in the north. Everyone in this place is eager to coexist.
"The left-wing government is dishonest." Everywhere you look, corruption is present. The government doesn't even have enough money to cover pensions and salaries.
Congress is currently the only choice. I don't like Congress, but I also don't want anyone to discriminate against people based only on their faith.
Thiruvananthapuram, the capital of Kerala, and Kochi are two places where people frequently repeat the same phrases. When asked about the election, he begins by stating unequivocally, "This is a state of educated people; everyone is equal here." Politics based on prejudice or violence is what no one wants. One thing is that Modi's popularity as a leader is undeniable, but this is the sole reason he is pursuing growth.
The second phase of voting for Kerala's 20 Lok Sabha seats is scheduled for April 26. The crew, led by Dainik Bhaskar, descended to the ground to determine Kerala's wind direction. Meeting leaders, professionals, and regular people helps to understand these four things.
1. The United Democratic Front, or UDF, has a chance to gain the most seats this election as well. Congress has granted tickets to its former candidates for 15 seats because it is in a good position. UDF could secure 15–18 seats. In 2019, this partnership secured 19 seats.
2. The BJP is gaining ground in Kerala's coastal regions. In the seats of Thiruvananthapuram and Thrissur, the BJP can provide a fierce opponent. The party's voting base might grow from 13% to 17%. This time around, winning the seat also seems difficult. The NDA score might stay at 0-2.
3. The Left government was elected to power in the state for the second time in a row. The accusations of corruption against the Left have infuriated a lot of people. But the left has formidable contenders for a number of seats. LDF may receive two to four seats.
4. The public likes Prime Minister Modi. People find him to be a capable leader and find his approach to development to be impressive. However, the BJP's portrayal, which singles out a specific religion, has angered many. Over the next ten years, the BJP appears to be growing stronger.
It is no longer a secret that the BJP is making progress in Kerala.
We contacted Gauri Das Nair, the former editor of the English newspaper "The Hindu," in order to gain an understanding of the Kerala election. He states, "Up until now, Kerala's main alliances have been the UDF and the LDF." NDA is the third player this time around. Though it may have swayed some seats, the BJP is being given serious consideration.
A prominent attorney and political commentator at the Kerala High Court share nearly identical views. "BJP does not have as much influence in Kerala as it does in the North at this time," he states. Nonetheless, BJP candidates may place second or third in three to four seats.
There are two seats where the BJP has a significant lead. It is a given that the BJP will gain more votes. This might rise to 17%. Keralans now seem to be growing fond of Modi.
When asked where the BJP is becoming more powerful, Jaishankar replies, "We are also seeing an increase in BJP votes in seats like Pattardata, Alpura, Kozhikode, Kasaragod, and Pallakad." The majority of the Nair community are now BJP supporters. There's also noticeable BJP support among higher-class Christians.
"The BJP will not perform a miracle in Kerala; neither a strong leader nor a worker will."
Compared to Jaishankar and Gauri Das, MK Das, the editor of the English publication Indian Express, holds a slightly different viewpoint. "BJP is not going to open its account in Kerala this time either," he declares. Modi hasn't been able to gain any traction as a leader here, even as of late. He is only known to the city's residents.
The lack of a strong leader within the BJP is their main issue. The BJP won't perform a miracle once more this time.
The editor of Danam Business Magazine, Kurian Abraham, provides us with an explanation for the BJP's ongoing failure in Kerala. He claims that Kerala's common people's secularism is the main factor in the Congress's or UDF's victory once more. Politics based on caste or religion are not desired here. The climate that has developed since the BJP arrived in the North is not what the people of Kerala want.
Kerala is a stronghold for the Congress, although the battle is harder than it was previously.
Political analyst Jaishankar responds to this query by saying, "Congress people attend the events of Muslims, Christians, and Hindus." It is well regarded in Kerala. Since the previous elections, it has become evident what the people's inclinations are. In the Lok Sabha, he would rather vote for the UDF, but in the assembly, he backs the LDF.
'This time, the pattern is different. People are aware that the BJP will form a government. He was expecting Congress to perform well the last time, and UDF had won 19 seats. Only the outcomes will reveal how much of an influence this will have. Congress has the upper hand because communist parties have no place in American politics.
The editor of Danam Business Magazine, Kurian Abraham, says that while Congress undoubtedly has the advantage in Kerala, they lack resources this time around. Within the party, there is a great deal of internal conflict. Its cadre is, hence, not as committed as the communists.
Have Christians from higher castes begun to move towards the BJP as well?
Political analyst Jaishankar responds, "There are different churches in Kerala," to this query. such as the Church of South India, Syrian, or Latin Catholic. Here, Christians are divided into three categories: upper caste, OBC, and Dalit. Among Christians from higher castes, support for the BJP is evident.
The Congress solely focuses on the Muslim population, but the Christian community has begun to feel as though they have been supporting the Congress for a long time. Tension is also being produced in some areas between Muslims and Christians. The BJP is making use of this.
The CPM is quietly helping the BJP beat the Congress.
Talk of a compromise between the Left and the BJP on many seats is also being discussed in Kerala. Former Hindu editor Gauri Das Nair speculates that the LDF might pick up a few more seats in this debate. Six to eight seats are up for grabs, but it seems tough.
For the CPM, the fight is also about preserving the party's national standing. As a result, there is also a notion that the CPM is covertly backing the BJP in some areas.
Nair continues, "Let me tell you, though, that doing this in Kerala is not easy." These are intelligent people who don't just mindlessly follow any party. People in this area believe that the federal government purposefully opposes the state government. This contradicts the BJP.
Not the BJP's politics, but those of the Left, like Modi, are unpopular with the public.
We met Kerala University student Nandana in Thiruvananthapuram. Nandana comments, "I am not happy with the work of the Kerala government, but I also do not like the BJP," in reference to the election issue. I support Congress both locally and nationally. I object to the BJP's arrogant stance.
Modi is liked by Achyut Gangadharan, a teacher at a well-known civil service coaching center in Thiruvananthapuram. "We are no longer happy with the Left government; it goes beyond the financial crisis," he declares. Development-related commitments were not kept. I think PM Modi is great, and he has improved the nation's standing internationally. Achyut, though, is equally certain that the BJP won't be able to win any seats in Kerala this time around.
It's not that everyone is hostile toward the left, though. When Om Kumar, a security guard, sees us discussing the elections with the general public, he comes to see us. "I like the Left government," he declares. Here, just those individuals are good. Provide rations, inexpensive food, and pensions. They also provide financial aid. Rahul Modi is not required. Here, left is preferable.
Imtiaz, who is preparing for the Civil Services, claims that the NDA is not running for office, with the exception of one or two seats. While the BJP is not supported here, Modi's reputation as a formidable leader is. We require a leader who leads progress while simultaneously guiding everyone else.
At Kovalam Beach, we ran with music teacher Mohan. He is furious with the state's left-leaning administration. They claim, "The Left government is doing a terrible job." Corruption is rampant, and nothing constructive has happened. Left-leaning leaders' families are financially successful. Nothing is being given to the people.
Congress (UDF): This time, the BJP's vote share will drop much more since it doesn't comprehend Kerala.
Senior Congressman Shashi Tharoor, a UDF candidate for the Thiruvananthapuram seat, is currently occupied with his election campaign. Regarding the Kerala election results, he states, "Everyone is witnessing in the South whatever the BJP has done in North India." This type of setting and goods are not what the people here want. Speaking negatively about any one class is not part of our culture.
At the Thiruvananthapuram Congress office, we met Lavanya Ballal Jain, the national spokesperson for the Congress. "BJP will not be able to win even a single seat in Kerala," the speaker declares. It will also have a lower vote share than it had before. The BJP and CPM have reportedly teamed up behind closed doors.
Lavanya goes on, "There is a case pending against the son of Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, and everyone is aware of how these cases wind up in the BJP's laundry basket." Voters are astute observers of all things. Keralan voters are angry at the Left's mishandling and are against the BJP. They have Congress in their sights.
Left (LDF): In the face of a powerful leader, why did Rahul Gandhi go to Wayanad?
Former Kerala Education Minister MA Baby, a Politburo member of the CPI-M, asserts that the LDF in Kerala "is going to repeat 20-year-old history this time." In 2004, UDF received one seat, while we won nineteen. This time around, the outcome will be the same.
According to Baby, the Congress is helping the BJP in Kerala. Why, after all, is Rahul Gandhi running for office from Wayanad? This is not the BJP's domain. With whom are they at odds? He ought to have picked a seat where the alliance's strength was evident or where the BJP had a powerful leader. The people would receive a positive message from this.
"The BJP is stating the same thing, but I don't want to say that they are afraid to fight against the BJP directly." This makes it quite evident that Congress is unsure of its goals.
Baby continues past this point. He continues, "KC Venugopal of the Congress is a Rajasthani member of the Rajya Sabha." In Kerala, he is running against the CPM. This will convey the idea that individuals aligned at the federal level are at odds with one another in the state. It makes sense for Kerala Congress leaders to run for office, but why are national politicians visiting this place? Will Venugopal step down from his Rajya Sabha seat even if he wins?
Rajasthan is governed by the BJP. Under such circumstances, the BJP will also win that seat. Venugopal, even if he doesn't want to, will help the BJP in the Rajya Sabha. Although the BJP does not currently hold a majority in the Rajya Sabha, the Congress is handing it a seat on a silver platter. What kind of foolishness is this?
Baby goes on, "We are telling people not to vote for UDF members because they did not fight for the people." In addition, it has occurred in other states where the BJP has fewer members than the Congress despite the latter's majority, and the BJP has established the government in place of the former. The MLAs for Congress were broken.
We are advising the public to keep in mind that the BJP may be able to purchase these UDF MPs if it does not win a majority when electing Congress and UDF members. This is a very real possibility.
He goes on, "There are currently over 100 BJP MPs who were previously in the Congress." The public is also being informed of this. In certain areas, the Congress functions as the BJP's hiring agency. Leaders join the Congress, then the BJP. The son and daughter of prominent Congressman AK Antony have joined the BJP in Kerala, where Antony is standing for Congress.
BJP: We will reap the benefits of Modi's return to the prime ministership, as everyone knows.
In Thiruvananthapuram, we met Union Minister Rajeev Chandrashekhar. In addition, he runs for the Thiruvananthapuram seat in the NDA. "I do not get involved in the numbers game," he responds when asked about the possibility of obtaining a seat in Kerala. My goal in being here is to succeed. I'm here to complete a mission. This place needs change, and I will deliver it.
As the BJP's Kerala State Treasurer and a practicing lawyer, Krishnadas adds, "The people of Kerala are understanding that there is no chance of the INDI block coming to Delhi this time." There was a lot of talk during the most recent Lok Sabha elections about Rahul Gandhi being the prime minister and the Congress winning. As a result, UDF had taken 19 of the state's 20 seats, with one seat going to the left.
"This time we are going to get a big breakthrough in Kerala," adds Krishnadas. The people of Kerala have been asked to grant PM Modi double-digit seats. Our goal is to secure as many seats as possible. This time, Rahul Gandhi of Wayanad is running against our state president, K. Surendran. Taking up arms from the Pathanamthitta seat is Anil Antony. In every seat, including Thiruvananthapuram, Attingal, and Thrissur, the BJP is riding high.
"Vote shifting has been a trend in Kerala," he states. Every time the CPM-Congress believes that the BJP will win, they divide the votes among themselves in an attempt to find a way to stop the BJP.
"Both of these parties used the same strategy to defeat BJP candidate E. Sreedharan, who was poised to win from Palakkad in the most recent assembly elections." Thus, this time, we are concentrating on receiving 51% of the vote in each seat.